Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 38.033619 43.273285 49.524868 57.704638 68.403834 82.367644 102.825784
2025-04-20 31.007569 37.326338 45.680794 58.117944 77.406583 109.018137 173.782977
2025-04-27 26.835207 33.610765 43.268488 59.204491 87.986800 147.969411 344.730672
2025-05-04 23.980046 30.939056 41.450435 60.334235 99.542550 205.711584 978.904892
2025-05-11 21.730684 28.658154 39.591341 60.615012 109.937026 286.053377 13494.537528
2025-05-18 19.794867 26.511399 37.450758 59.584973 116.901957 385.235516 NaN
2025-05-25 18.448899 25.077984 36.211703 59.930026 128.308233 590.956811 NaN
2025-06-01 17.228804 23.682425 34.778417 59.395966 137.100722 929.030207 NaN
2025-06-08 16.163028 22.416918 33.375314 58.521771 144.501034 1586.728751 NaN
2025-06-15 15.256091 21.323928 32.134384 57.702807 151.993549 3413.338478 NaN
2025-06-22 14.514663 20.441909 31.175969 57.347549 161.936784 20463.186909 NaN
2025-06-29 13.747014 19.450115 29.882067 55.803064 164.963320 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 13.534694 19.419974 30.521489 59.808044 207.423466 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 12.934259 18.650582 29.552528 58.952717 218.246057 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 12.496890 18.142713 29.074807 59.483584 243.097485 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.122149 17.720130 28.728774 60.356666 276.278336 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.731697 17.240334 28.204044 60.518487 305.620399 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.295799 16.648343 27.372579 59.439469 318.465460 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.979148 16.261079 26.963173 59.759793 356.794108 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.636466 15.804373 26.353352 59.217964 382.414715 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.299953 15.341664 25.691065 58.343611 401.544367 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.989559 14.913647 25.075654 57.526806 422.165371 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.723906 14.558761 24.603350 57.172475 457.231201 NaN NaN